www.electoral-vote.com has abandoned their previous linear regression model for projecting the ultimate outcome of the 2004 presidential election and replaced it with a very clever model:
- Voters who already have made a choice will stick to it - The undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry) - If Nader is on the ballot, he will get 2%; otherwise 0% (was 2.74% nationally in 2000) - The minor candidates such as Badnarik, Cobb, etc. will get 1% of the vote (was 1.01% in 2000)
With this model and recent polling data www.electoral-vote.com has Kerry winning by 311-227 in the electoral college on election day.
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